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中国录得资本流入 缓解各方担忧

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中国录得资本流入 缓解各方担忧

China economy fears ease after capital inflows boost

英国《金融时报》 吴佳柏 上海报道

Capital flowed into China last month for the first time since an unexpected currency devaluation in August shook investor confidence in the economy, easing fears over financial stability following an unprecedented bout of outflows.

中国上月录得自8月人民币意外贬值、动摇投资者对中国经济信心以来首次资本净流入,缓解了人们对于一波空前的资本外流之后中国金融稳定的担忧。

Capital has exited China at a record pace this year as an economic slowdown pushed Chinese gross domestic product growth to its slowest pace in six years. Outflows accelerated following the central bank’s unexpected move in August to let the renminbi weaken and the main stock index fell more than

随着经济放缓把中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长压低至六年最低位,今年中国遭遇创纪录速度的资本外流。中国央行在8月采取让人民币走低的意外举动、且主要股指自6月下旬起下滑逾40%后,资本外流有所提速。

40 per cent beginning in late June.

外流趋势在10月扭转。据上周六公布的央行数据,中国央行和中国其它金融机构当月净买入129亿元人民币的外汇,结束连续四个月的净卖出。净外汇买入被视为资本流入的一个标志,而净外汇卖出被视为资本外流。10月录得净买入之前,中国在9月录得7610亿元人民币的创纪录净外汇卖出。

The outflow trend reversed in October as the central bank and other Chinese financial institutions bought a net Rmb12.9bn in foreign exchange, breaking a four-month streak of net sales, according to data from the central bank released on Saturday. Net forex purchases are considered a sign of capital inflow, while sales indicate outflows. October’s purchases followed record-high net sales of Rmb761bn in September.

本月早些时候另有数据表明,中国的官方外汇储备(其中仅包括央行所持储备)在10月份增加了114亿美元,结束了连续五个月的下降趋势。截至上月底,中国的外汇储备达到3.53万亿美元,低于2014年6月3.99万亿美元的峰值。

Separate data earlier this month showed that China’s official foreign exchange reserves, which only include holdings by the central bank, rose by $11.4bn in October, breaking five straight months of decline. Total reserves stood at $3.53tn at the end of last month, down from a peak of $3.99tn in June 2014.

“对于(人民币)贬值的担忧近来已经缓解了很多。人民币在8月11日意外贬值后,我们曾预测人民币到今年底的贬值幅度将不到5%,”麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)中国经济学家胡伟俊(Larry Hu)写道。

“The fear of [renminbi] devaluation has been alleviated a lot recently. When the renminbi surprisingly depreciated on August 11, we predicted that the renminbi would depreciate less than 5 per cent by year-end,” wrote Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Securities.

“与三个月前相比,那个预测的争议性已经小了很多。”

“That call has become much less controversial recently compared with three months ago.”

在8月份采取行动让人民币有走低空间后,中国人民银行(PBoC)动用其外汇储备,阻止人民币以过于剧烈的幅度贬值。在中国央行仅在8月就支出高达2000亿美元支撑本币后,分析师们担心,如果中国央行按照这样的速度继续干预,中国的外汇储备可能会很快耗尽。

After its move in August to allow the renminbi room to weaken, the People’s Bank of China drew on its foreign exchange reserves to prevent the currency from weakening too sharply. After the PBoC spent as much as $200bn in August alone to support the currency, analysts worried that China’s forex reserves could be quickly exhausted if the central bank continued intervention at that pace.

最新数据似乎表明,市场对人民币的情绪(在中国央行8月采取行动后曾大幅转向看跌)已有所好转。

The latest data suggest that market sentiment toward the renminbi, which turned sharply bearish after the August move, has improved.

分析师们表示,央行的市场干预已说服投资者相信,中国政府不会允许人民币大幅下跌。央行还对向海外转移资金重新实施了一些限制,以遏制外流。

Analysts say the PBoC’s market intervention persuaded investors that the government would not permit a large fall in the currency. The central bank also reimposed some restrictions on transferring funds abroad to curb outflows.

中国的资本流动

Adding to improved sentiment, China’s stock market has returned to bull market territory from its lows of late August, and the bond market is also rising on the back of successive interest rate cuts by the PBoC.

在市场对人民币情绪好转的同时,中国股市已从8月下旬的低点反弹至牛市区间,债券市场也在中国央行一再降息的支撑下出现涨势。

The International Monetary Fund staff recommended on Friday that the renminbi be added to join the elite basket of currencies used to value the fund’s own de facto currency, known as Special Drawing Rights.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)工作人员上周五建议,人民币应当被纳入决定特别提款权(SDR,该组织实际上的货币)估值的主要货币篮子。

“The continued stabilisation of the Chinese economy and the renminbi’s likely inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket will help support a stable exchange rate and limit capital outflows through the rest of 2015,” wrote Shen Jianguang, China economist at Mizuho Securities.

“中国经济继续企稳以及人民币很可能被纳入IMF的特别提款权篮子,将在2015年剩余时间帮助稳定汇率,限制资本外流,”瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)中国经济学家沈建光写道。

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