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亚洲陷入深度贸易衰退

http://en.jybest.cn  新东方    2015-09-21    

 

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Asia’s “trade recession” appears to have worsened in August — with India, China, South Korea and Indonesia all posting sharp declines — as a vicious circle of weakening currencies and faltering demand hits exports across the region, analysts said.

Asia, led by China, has long been the world’s most dynamic trading region. But exports this year have posted their worst performance since the 2008-09 financial crisis, falling 7.7 per cent in July to register a ninth consecutive month of year on year falls in US dollar terms, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, a research company.

Figures for August released so far show a deepening of this trend. India announced this week a 20.6 per cent fall in exports in August from a year earlier, while South Korea suffered a 14.9 per cent slide, Indonesia a 12.3 per cent deterioration and China a decline of 6.1 per cent.

In each of these countries, apart from India, imports fell by a bigger margin than exports in August.

The deepening trade recession suggests a further leg down in a vicious circle of cause and effect that is afflicting emerging markets the world over, not just in Asia. Weakening currencies are failing to boost exports but nevertheless driving down demand for imports, thus reducing aggregate demand and worsening disinflationary trends.

An FT study of 107 emerging market countries showed that a weaker currency did not lead to any rise in export volumes but did depress import volumes by an average of 0.5 per cent for every 1 per cent a currency depreciated against the US dollar.

“We had been expecting a smooth transition in global growth drivers away from the slowing Chinese economy and towards the US household sector over 2015-16,” wrote Glenn Maguire, chief economist for South Asia, Asean and Pacific for ANZ Research. “Alas, it was not to be.”

He said the region’s “deep trade recession” was prompting the research group to make significant downward revisions to its 2015-17 GDP growth forecasts.

Mr Maguire said several factors were behind the region’s weak trade performance, including “structurally lower potential growth rates among major economies, unfavourable demographic trends and under-investment in capacity”.

In addition to these factors, Mr Maguire said, a fundamental weakening in the trade multiplier was also in play. “This is a remarkable out-turn relative to Asia’s strong historical trade performance,” he added.

Underlining this predicament is the fact that although the values of all Asian currencies (apart from the Hong Kong dollar) have fallen against the US dollar since the start of August — which should boost exports as they become cheaper in dollar terms — the performance of exports has continued to worsen.

Analysts advance several explanations for this phenomenon.

One has it that the quantitative easing activities in the US, Europe and Japan have served to boost asset values much more than consumer demand, an analysis that is reinforced by the anaemic wage growth of the US middle class.

Another explanation maintains that the import-intensity of Chinese exports has declined as bigger sections of the Chinese global supply chain relocate to China.

A third rationale is that a collapse in consumer demand in key commodity-producing countries such as Brazil and Russia has triggered a knock-on effect throughout emerging markets.

Corroborating these dynamics is evidence that consumer spending continues to weaken throughout emerging markets. In the second quarter, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, consumer spending grew just 1.2 per cent year on year, its lowest level since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Industrial production growth also remains weak, with Capital Economics’ aggregate measure for all emerging markets expanding by just 2.2 per cent year on year in the three months to July — again, the slowest pace since September 2009.

中文:

  分析师表示,8月,亚洲的“贸易衰退”似乎进一步加剧,印度、中国、韩国和印尼的贸易额均大幅下降,汇率疲弱和需求低迷的恶性循环正在冲击整个亚洲地区的出口。

  以中国为首的亚洲长期以来是全球最具活力的贸易区域。但研究公司凯投宏观(CapitalEconomics)的数据显示,今年以来,该地区出口录得2008年至2009年金融危机以来最差表现,按美元计算,7月出口额同比下降7.7%,为连续第9个月同比下降。

  目前已发布的8月数据显示,这种趋势在继续深化。印度本周宣布,8月出口同比下降20.6%,同时韩国出口下降14.9%,印尼下降12.3%,而中国下降6.1%。

  除了印度以外,上述所有国家的进口降幅均超过出口降幅。

  贸易衰退加剧表明,正在困扰全球(而非仅仅是亚洲)新兴市场的恶性因果循环又进一步恶化。汇率疲弱未能推动出口,却压低了进口需求,从而导致总需求下降,加剧通缩趋势。

  英国《金融时报》对107个新兴市场国家的研究表明,货币贬值没有导致出口额上升,却削弱了进口额——平均而言,这些国家的货币兑美元每贬值1%,进口就会减少0.5%。

  澳新银行研究部(ANZResearch)负责南亚、东盟和太平洋地区的首席经济学家马博文(GlennMaguire)写道:“我们此前预期,全球增长引擎的角色将在2015年至2016年间由持续放缓的中国经济平稳过渡到美国家庭部门,可惜情况并非如此。”

  他说,由于亚洲地区出现“深度贸易衰退”,该研究部大幅下调了该地区2015年至2017年的GDP增长预期。

  马博文表示,该地区贸易表现疲弱背后有多重因素,包括“主要经济体的潜在增长率出现结构性下降、不利的人口趋势以及产能投资不足”。

  马博文说,除了这些因素以外,贸易乘数的根本性疲弱也有影响。他补充称:“相对于亚洲强劲的历史贸易表现,这是一个不同寻常的结果。”

  突显这种困境的是,尽管自8月初以来,亚洲地区所有货币兑美元几乎全线贬值(港币除外)——这本应提升出口,原因是按美元计算,商品价格变得便宜——但出口表现继续恶化。

  分析师们对这种现象提出了数种解释。

  一种观点是,美国、欧洲和日本的量化宽松活动将资产价值推高至远超过消费者需求的地步,美国中产阶级薪资增长疲弱也支持这种分析。

  另一种解释认为,随着中国的全球供应链的更大部分回流中国,中国出口产品中的进口强度下降。

  第三种解释是,巴西、俄罗斯等主要大宗商品生产国的消费者需求大幅下降,在整个新兴市场产生了连锁效应。

  有证据表明,整个新兴市场的消费者支出继续表现疲弱,这证实了上述解释。凯投宏观的数据显示,在今年第二季度,消费者支出同比仅增长了1.2%,为金融危机之后最低的水平。

  工业产值增长也依然疲弱。5-7月,凯投宏观衡量所有新兴市场的工业产值指标同比仅增长2.2%,同样是自2009年9月以来的最低水平。

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