中国教育在线 中国教育网 加入收藏 设为首页

亚洲陷入深度贸易衰退  新东方    2015-09-21    



Asia’s “trade recession” appears to have worsened in August — with India, China, South Korea and Indonesia all posting sharp declines — as a vicious circle of weakening currencies and faltering demand hits exports across the region, analysts said.

Asia, led by China, has long been the world’s most dynamic trading region. But exports this year have posted their worst performance since the 2008-09 financial crisis, falling 7.7 per cent in July to register a ninth consecutive month of year on year falls in US dollar terms, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, a research company.

Figures for August released so far show a deepening of this trend. India announced this week a 20.6 per cent fall in exports in August from a year earlier, while South Korea suffered a 14.9 per cent slide, Indonesia a 12.3 per cent deterioration and China a decline of 6.1 per cent.

In each of these countries, apart from India, imports fell by a bigger margin than exports in August.

The deepening trade recession suggests a further leg down in a vicious circle of cause and effect that is afflicting emerging markets the world over, not just in Asia. Weakening currencies are failing to boost exports but nevertheless driving down demand for imports, thus reducing aggregate demand and worsening disinflationary trends.

An FT study of 107 emerging market countries showed that a weaker currency did not lead to any rise in export volumes but did depress import volumes by an average of 0.5 per cent for every 1 per cent a currency depreciated against the US dollar.

“We had been expecting a smooth transition in global growth drivers away from the slowing Chinese economy and towards the US household sector over 2015-16,” wrote Glenn Maguire, chief economist for South Asia, Asean and Pacific for ANZ Research. “Alas, it was not to be.”

He said the region’s “deep trade recession” was prompting the research group to make significant downward revisions to its 2015-17 GDP growth forecasts.

Mr Maguire said several factors were behind the region’s weak trade performance, including “structurally lower potential growth rates among major economies, unfavourable demographic trends and under-investment in capacity”.

In addition to these factors, Mr Maguire said, a fundamental weakening in the trade multiplier was also in play. “This is a remarkable out-turn relative to Asia’s strong historical trade performance,” he added.

Underlining this predicament is the fact that although the values of all Asian currencies (apart from the Hong Kong dollar) have fallen against the US dollar since the start of August — which should boost exports as they become cheaper in dollar terms — the performance of exports has continued to worsen.

Analysts advance several explanations for this phenomenon.

One has it that the quantitative easing activities in the US, Europe and Japan have served to boost asset values much more than consumer demand, an analysis that is reinforced by the anaemic wage growth of the US middle class.

Another explanation maintains that the import-intensity of Chinese exports has declined as bigger sections of the Chinese global supply chain relocate to China.

A third rationale is that a collapse in consumer demand in key commodity-producing countries such as Brazil and Russia has triggered a knock-on effect throughout emerging markets.

Corroborating these dynamics is evidence that consumer spending continues to weaken throughout emerging markets. In the second quarter, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, consumer spending grew just 1.2 per cent year on year, its lowest level since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Industrial production growth also remains weak, with Capital Economics’ aggregate measure for all emerging markets expanding by just 2.2 per cent year on year in the three months to July — again, the slowest pace since September 2009.

























① 凡本站注明“稿件来源:中国教育在线”的所有文字、图片和音视频稿件,版权均属本网所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表。已经本站协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明“稿件来源:中国教育在线”,违者本站将依法追究责任。

② 本站注明稿件来源为其他媒体的文/图等稿件均为转载稿,本站转载出于非商业性的教育和科研之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其内容的真实性。如转载稿涉及版权等问题,请作者在两周内速来电或来函联系。



eol.cn简介 | 联系方式 | 网站声明 | 招聘信息 | 京ICP证140769号 | 京ICP备12045350号 | 京网文[2017]10376-1180号 | 京公网安备 11010802020236号
版权所有 赛尔互联(北京)教育科技有限公司 CERNET Corporation
Mail to: